The ASX 200 kicked off the week with a strong rebound, rising 1.3% in its best session in nearly a month. Sector breadth improved sharply, Industrials led the charge, and heavyweight names such as Brambles showed early signs of a potential bottoming pattern. With volume expanding and risk appetite stabilising, the near-term tone has shifted noticeably from last week’s weakness.
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ASX 200 Outlook: Industrials Drive the Week’s Early Strength
ASX 200 Market Snapshot
- Monday’s 1.3% gain came with strong breadth: 169 (84.5%) ASX 200 stocks advanced, 21 declined and 10 were unchanged.
- Daily trading volume hit its highest level in two months, pointing to bullish initiation.
- Ten of eleven ASX 200 sectors rose, led by Materials (XMJ), Info Tech (XIJ) and Real Estate (XRE) — a sharp reversal from Friday’s bearish session.
- Industrials (XNJ) rallied 2.7% from the 200-day SMA, marking its best day in 12 weeks.
- All ‘big four’ banks finished higher, led by Westpac (+2.3%) and CBA (+1.2%), which continued to gain traction above 150 as highlighted last week.
- BHP rose 0.6% after abandoning its final bid for Anglo American, helping to lift Rio Tinto (RIO), Fortescue (FMG) and the broader mining sub-index (XMM).
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - source: ASX, LSEG
Brambles BXB Eyes Rebound as Momentum Turns Higher
With the industrials sector delivering the strongest performance on Monday, Brambles stands out as a potential long setup within the mega-cap space. The stock has pulled back 13.4% from the August double top, but short-term momentum is starting to turn higher.
A rickshaw man doji formed last week alongside a heavily oversold RSI(2), and a bullish divergence has since developed. Monday’s bullish engulfing candle marked its best day in nearly two weeks and came with its strongest volume in almost two months.
I’m not calling for an immediate return to cycle highs, but price action suggests an inflection point has formed. As long as BXB holds above 23.00, near-term risks appear skewed to the upside.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: ASX, TradingView
ASX 200 Futures (API 200) Technical Analysis
A firm lead from Wall Street futures helped ASX 200 futures climb 0.53% overnight. Prices are now approaching the August low at 8590, a level that looks likely to be tested in today’s session. A break above 8600 would open the door for a move toward the February high at 8663.
My near-term bias remains bullish, but I still view this as a countertrend rebound while prices trade beneath the September low at 8752. Until that level is reclaimed, the broader assumption is that the ASX has another leg lower to complete.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: TradingView, ASX SPI 200 Index Futures
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-- Written by Matt Simpson
Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge
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